Tuesday, May 02, 2006

Titan Jackpot Update

The best streak I've managed so far is 3 straight top 2 finishes and 2 straight firsts. Currently sitting at exactly that situation now for the third time. The good news is that I'm up a couple hundred dollars while playing these $23 sngs. I think I'll stick to these for online play while this promo is on.

What I figure is that is any 6max sng if the field were completely even then, obviously, the change of obtaining top 2 would be 2/6 or 33%. Now, I have a large edge on the field in 6max sngs as they are a specialty of mine. I make top 2 in these over 60%, so far on Titan the percentage being 11/18, or roughly 61%. So, the odds placing top 2 for 6 games in a row would be 0.61 to the 6th power, or roughly a 5% chance. If I can place in top 2 in 70%, which I feel is very realistic on this site at the $23 level, then I have an almost 12% chance or top 2 for 6 games in a row.

Taking the 5% number which translates to 1 in 20, I would on average have to play a series of 6 straight sngs 20 times to win the $300 bonus for placing top 2 for 6 games in a row.

Taking the 12% number, or roughly 1 in 9, I would have to play the series of 6 9 times to win.

Apparently, this would be between 9 and 20 series of 6 sngs, or between 54 and 120 sngs per $300 bonus. In reality, it is likely less sngs as an entire series of 6 is not required for each assessment as one loss will result in a new string of 6 games.

Lets see how it goes. So far 19sngs and no jackpots.

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